COP29 in Azerbaijan: Climate Summit Results and What It Means for Global Action

Azerbaijan made history in November 2024 by hosting COP29, the 29th United Nations Climate Change Conference, at the Baku Olympic Stadium. From November 11-22, nearly 200 countries gathered to negotiate climate finance, renewable energy commitments, and pathways to limit global warming. As the conference concluded with mixed results, the world is left questioning whether COP29 delivered enough to combat the escalating climate crisis.

What Was COP29 and Why Did It Matter?

The Conference of the Parties (COP) is the annual UN climate summit where world leaders, negotiators, scientists, and activists converge to address climate change. COP29, dubbed the "finance COP," focused primarily on establishing new financial commitments to help developing nations adapt to climate impacts and transition to clean energy.

Azerbaijan's selection as host sparked controversy from the outset. As a petrostate heavily dependent on oil and gas exports, the country faced criticism for its environmental record and human rights concerns. President Ilham Aliyev's characterization of fossil fuels as a "gift from God" during the conference opening further intensified debate about the choice of venue.

Major Outcomes: The $300 Billion Climate Finance Deal

The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG)

After intense negotiations that extended beyond the scheduled closing time, COP29 produced its most significant outcome: a new climate finance goal requiring developed nations to mobilize $300 billion annually by 2035 for developing countries. This represents a threefold increase from the previous $100 billion target established in 2009.

The agreement also includes an aspirational goal of reaching $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 through public, private, bilateral, and multilateral channels. UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell described the deal as "an insurance policy for humanity," emphasizing that it must be paid "in full, and on time."

Reality Check: Is $300 Billion Enough?

While tripling the previous commitment sounds impressive, climate experts and developing nations expressed deep disappointment. An economic study released during COP29 estimated that developing countries actually need $2.3-2.5 trillion annually by 2030 to adequately address climate change impacts and transition to clean energy.

India and Nigeria were among the most vocal critics, with delegates accusing Azerbaijan's leadership of forcing through an inadequate agreement without proper consultation. The $300 billion target falls drastically short of the $1.3 trillion that the G77 bloc of developing countries had demanded.

Progress and Setbacks at COP29

Carbon Markets Finally Operational

On the opening day, COP29 achieved a breakthrough that had eluded previous conferences: operationalizing Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which establishes rules for international carbon markets. This framework allows countries to trade carbon credits and establish crediting mechanisms.

While Azerbaijan's Minister of Energy Parviz Shahbazov hailed this as "game-changing," civil society groups criticized the rushed adoption process, which some called the "carbon coup." Critics worry about potential loopholes and unintended environmental consequences without adequate oversight.

Energy Storage and Renewable Commitments

COP29 saw significant pledges to expand global energy infrastructure:

• Energy Storage Pledge: Major economies including the US, Brazil, UK, Saudi Arabia, and UAE committed to a sixfold increase in global energy storage capacity by 2030
• Hydrogen Declaration: Countries pledged to scale up renewable and low-carbon hydrogen production
• Coal Phase-Out: 25 countries plus the EU announced plans to include "no new unabated coal power" in their next climate commitments
• Grid Infrastructure: Strengthened commitments to improve energy transmission and grid security

The Fossil Fuel Stalemate

Perhaps the most disappointing outcome was the failure to build on last year's historic commitment to transition away from fossil fuels. Saudi Arabia led opposition to any language "targeting specific sectors, including fossil fuels," effectively blocking progress on this critical issue.

This setback pushed decisions about fossil fuel phase-out to COP30 in Brazil next year, raising concerns about backsliding on climate ambition.

Controversies and Challenges

Azerbaijan's Role as Host

The selection of Azerbaijan to host COP29 generated substantial controversy. As one of the world's top oil producers, the country's economy remains heavily dependent on fossil fuel exports. Human Rights Watch noted that Azerbaijan intensified its crackdown on domestic critics even while hosting the climate conference.

The juxtaposition of President Aliyev celebrating oil and gas as divine gifts while presiding over climate negotiations struck many observers as fundamentally contradictory to the summit's mission.

Calls for COP Reform

During the conference, a group of prominent climate experts, scientists, and former UN leaders—including former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon—published an open letter calling for fundamental reforms to the COP process. They argued that countries actively expanding oil and gas production should be barred from holding COP presidencies.

The letter stated that "the current structure simply cannot deliver the change at exponential speed and scale" required to address the climate emergency.

The Trump Factor

The recent reelection of Donald Trump as U.S. President cast a shadow over negotiations. Trump is expected to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement again and potentially pull out of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change entirely.

Many attendees called for China to fill the leadership void left by anticipated U.S. withdrawal, though questions remain about China's willingness to take on this role.

What Happens Next: The Road to COP30

February 2025: New Climate Commitments Due

Under the Paris Agreement, countries must submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by February 2025. These voluntary commitments outline each nation's plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The commitments previewed at COP29 showed wide variation in ambition. While the UK significantly raised its targets, submissions from Brazil and UAE faced criticism for not addressing fossil fuel phase-out despite last year's agreement.

COP30 in Brazil: Last Chance for 1.5°C?

Brazil will host COP30 in Belém in November 2025, with focus on ensuring that national commitments align with limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This represents a critical juncture, as 2024 is on track to be the hottest year on record, with temperatures temporarily exceeding the 1.5°C threshold.

Scientists warn that the next decade is crucial. Without significantly more aggressive action, the planet will irreversibly surpass 1.5°C of warming, triggering cascading climate impacts.

Expert Analysis: Was COP29 a Failure?

Climate policy experts offer sobering assessments of COP29's outcomes. The Council on Foreign Relations characterized the conference as "poorly organized" and noted it "fell far short of goals for climate finance."

Canada's Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault called the "lack of ambition" from Baku leadership "deplorable." However, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell maintained that the finance deal, while imperfect, keeps "the clean energy boom growing and protects billions of lives."

The consensus among observers is that COP29 achieved incremental progress but failed to deliver the transformational action required by the scale and urgency of the climate crisis.

Frequently Asked Questions About COP29

What was the main goal of COP29?

COP29's primary objective was establishing a new climate finance goal to help developing nations adapt to climate change and transition to clean energy. The conference also addressed carbon markets, renewable energy commitments, and fossil fuel phase-out.

How much money did countries agree to provide?

Developed nations agreed to mobilize $300 billion annually by 2035 for developing countries, tripling the previous $100 billion target. An aspirational goal of $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 from all sources was also included.

Why was Azerbaijan controversial as COP29 host?

Azerbaijan is a major oil and gas producer with a questionable environmental and human rights record. Critics argued that a petrostate should not host climate negotiations, especially when its president defended fossil fuels during the conference.

What happens with fossil fuels after COP29?

COP29 failed to advance commitments on fossil fuel phase-out due to opposition from oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia. This issue will be revisited at COP30 in Brazil.

Will the United States remain in the Paris Agreement?

President-elect Donald Trump is expected to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement and potentially the broader UN climate framework when he takes office in January 2025.

The Verdict: Mixed Results and Uncertain Future

COP29 in Azerbaijan delivered a mixed bag of outcomes. The tripling of climate finance commitments represents meaningful progress, as does the operationalization of carbon markets. Enhanced energy storage pledges and renewable energy commitments offer rays of hope.

However, the failure to address fossil fuel production, the inadequacy of financial commitments relative to actual needs, and heightened tensions among nations raise serious questions about the COP process's ability to deliver the rapid, transformational change scientists say is necessary.

As the world moves toward COP30 in Brazil, the stakes could not be higher. With 2024 set to be the hottest year on record and carbon levels at three-million-year highs, humanity's window to avoid catastrophic climate change is rapidly closing. Whether the international community can muster the political will and financial resources to meet this existential challenge remains the defining question of our time.