California’s new map puts GOP on the run

SACRAMENTO, California — California’s Democratic gerrymander just forced most of the state's GOP House members into a fight for their political lives.

Five incumbent Republicans targeted by the new maps must now decide whether to vie for districts redesigned for Democrats or challenge their GOP colleagues in what few Republican-leaning seats remain. Democratic officials, meanwhile, are already sparring over who will succeed them.

“That scramble already started well before the polls closed,” said David Huerta, president of Service Employees International Union California, which plays heavily in the state’s House races.

The contingency planning for this day has in fact been underway for months, though several prospective candidates have insisted publicly that they were focused on the campaign to redraw California’s House maps. Now, they have to make a decision, with major implications not only for their own political futures, but for the balance of power in the House.

Crossroads for Kiley

Rep. Kevin Kiley finds himself in a lose-lose situation in the Sacramento suburbs. One of five Republican incumbents targeted by Prop 50, his 3rd Congressional District will flip from a 3 percentage point GOP advantage to an 8-point Democratic one. He can run against the odds in his reshaped district, but longtime incumbent Democratic Rep. Ami Bera announced Tuesday night he’s running in it, making the district significantly more challenging for any Republican.

Kiley could also run for the new version of Bera’s 6th Congressional District seat, as it becomes slightly more Republican. But even that district maintains a Democratic edge of more than 9 percentage points, and local pols including state Sen. Angelique Ashby and District Attorney Thien Ho have been floated as Democratic challengers. Lauren Babb Tomlinson, a Planned Parenthood public affairs chief, is considering running for the open seat. And former state Sen. Richard Pan, who previously announced his candidacy in the 3rd, is now shifting to the 6th, a spokesperson for him said following Bera’s announcement.

Rep. Tom McClintock’s seat could be an attractive target for Kiley, since it will remain safely Republican, but Kiley would be taking on a more senior incumbent.

Asked Wednesday whether he might challenge McClintock, Kiley didn’t rule it out, but didn’t provide hints at where he’s leaning, either.

“I don't know where I'm running,” Kiley told reporters. “What I can say with some confidence is that, wherever I run, it will be one of the six districts that includes part of my current district, because I want to at least be able to keep some of the same constituents.”

LaMalfa’s political peril

Rep. Doug LaMalfa told reporters last week he planned to seek reelection regardless of whether Prop 50 passed, but his bid just got a lot tougher. His 1st Congressional District in Northern California will transform from a nearly 18-point GOP edge to an 11-point Democratic advantage — swallowing up voters in deep-blue Sonoma County.

That creates an opening for Democratic state Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire. Long before the California Legislature voted to place Prop 50 on the ballot under McGuire’s leadership, he was rumored to be eyeing Rep. Mike Thompson’s safe blue seat, waiting for his fellow wine country Democrat to retire. The new 1st District cuts between McGuire’s residence in Heraldsburg and Thompson’s in nearby St. Helena, providing a path for McGuire to run for Congress without a primary challenge. Though he hasn’t announced his plans, the state Senate leader recently dumped cash from a state campaign account that can’t be transferred to a federal race into the effort to pass Prop 50.

A spokesperson for McGuire said in a statement that the senator “is incredibly honored by the encouragement to run for Congress” and will “be talking to family, community leaders and friends in the days to come.”

Past LaMalfa challenger Audrey Denney has also announced plans to run in the 1st District.

Assuming a Democrat takes the seat, GOP strategists are waiting to see whether LaMalfa retires rather than running again in 2028. The House gerrymander is set to be in effect until 2032, by which point LaMalfa will be in his 70s.

A messy intraparty fight looms in Southern California

GOP Reps. Young Kim and Ken Calvert confirmed Wednesday that they’ll face off against one another, setting up a fierce standoff for the redrawn 40th District, which was transformed from an Orange County battleground into a Republican vote sink that also reaches inland into Riverside County.

The intraparty brawl could get even rougher if Rep. Darrell Issa — whose district is losing some Republican voters to the 40th while becoming significantly more competitive for Democrats — gets in the race. Republican observers are also watching to see whether former state legislator and grassroots conservative favorite Melissa Melendez chooses to run.

A clear winner in the Southern California shakeup is Democrat Hilda Solis, a Los Angeles County supervisor who previously served in the House and as labor secretary in the Obama administration. She’s running for the redrawn 38th Congressional District in her county, while Rep. Linda Sanchez, who occupies the old 38th district, is expected to run for the new version of Calvert’s 41st.

MAGA-friendly no more

As Newsom and California lawmakers were finalizing Prop 50, Issa sent a defiant fundraising message to supporters: “Radical Democrats are already lining up to oppose my reelection,” he wrote. “My message to them? Bring it on.”

Whether “radical” or not, Issa was right about one thing: Democrats are indeed lining up to take on a member of Congress who has been a steadfast supporter of President Donald Trump in a part of the state where that hasn’t hurt him.

That is, until now.

The new maps will turn the 48th Congressional District, which spans rural and suburban parts of San Diego and Riverside counties, from one where Republicans had a registration advantage of 10 percentage points to one where Democrats would have an edge of about 3 points. It does this by shifting traditionally conservative communities east of San Diego out of the district and adding tens of thousands of new, more Democratic voters from the Coachella Valley and suburban northeastern San Diego County.

Nine Democrats and one independent have filed to run in a district that Issa won with nearly 60 percent of the vote in 2024. Four of those Democrats have raised at least six figures for what is expected to be a hotly contested campaign for a seat that otherwise would have been written off by the party.

Issa could still make it interesting. Voters not affiliated with either major party make up about 30 percent of the new district. And Issa is still defiant. “I’m not going anywhere. I’ll continue to represent the people of California regardless of their party or where they live,” he said in a statement as it quickly became clear that Prop 50 would win. “I’m not quitting on California. And neither should anyone else.”

Valadao gets squeezed

Rep. David Valadao, a top target for Democrats even before Prop 50 passed, has proven extremely resilient despite his district’s 11-point Democratic registration advantage. Now, however, that margin will grow to nearly 18 points, leaving him far more vulnerable.

The contenders in the 22nd District aren’t expected to change due to the gerrymander, unlike those of the other four Republican-held districts targeted by Prop 50. But Democrats’ confidence in the Central Valley certainly is — with the party salivating over its improved odds. Moderate Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains and Democratic school board member Randy Villegas have both been in the race since before the House redraw began, and they’re planning to stay in.

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